Category Archives: Theology

Paradoxes of Theodicy

Part I. The Problem of Evil.

A typical form of the Argument from Evil claims that it is unreasonable to think that a God exists who would permit evil, if he is assumed to have the following properties:

• Omnipotent (all-powerful)
• Omniscience (all-knowing, all-wise)
• Perfectly good

(Actually, it would be even more typical if the presentation used the term “Omnibenevolent” for the moral property.  But I can’t help but notice that this term is only ever used by skeptics presenting this particular argument.  It is not a term traditionally used by theologians, and I’m not entirely certain what its meaning is.  What does the “omni” part extend over?  Different persons?  Different acts?  Does it mean that God is obligated to create every possible being?  Does it mean that God is obligated to give every possible good to every possible being?  Traditional theology tends to deny the existence of such obligations.  I have accordingly replaced the “moral” attribute with what I consider to be a better term.)

The argument goes, that if God is perfectly good, he will want to prevent us from experiencing any evil.  If God is all-wise, he will be aware of the best method for eliminating evil.  And if God is all-powerful, then he will be able to implement this method without encountering any obstacle to his power.  So then what is the explanation of evil?

The term “theodicy” refers to attempts to explain why God permits evil.  This post will not, quite, propose any specific theodicy.  Although there are various theodicy-like proposals that I will make in various places in this essay, most of them fairly tentatively.  Instead, my points will be more on the meta level.  I will argue for some reasons to be skeptical about the cogency of the Argument from Evil in this form.  I will argue for the following theses:

1. It is not highly implausible that God has reasons for permitting evil that we don’t know about.

2. If there is a logically satisfactory explanation for suffering, it is not unlikely that the explanation—to the extent that we can understand it—would not emotionally satisfy us.  Arguably, it could not do so, without undermining whatever purposes God has for allowing suffering in the first place.

3. There are some deeply paradoxical aspects of the human relationship to “good” and “evil”, that make it impossible for us to conceive of a perfectly good state of affairs, involving (a) human beings recognizably like us, who (b) experience no evils, and in particular (c) are content with this state of affairs.

(Strictly speaking, the discontent in (c) is a subcase of (b), but I have given it a separate letter anyway, because you can’t stop me from doing so!)

While I maintain that thesis 1 follows from entirely straightforward and reasonable probabilistic considerations, the other two thesis may seem stranger.  How can there be an explanation for suffering that doesn’t satisfy us?  How can it be not good for things to be perfectly good?

But I doubt that we can avoid all such paradoxes by denying Theism.  Especially the paradox in my 3rd thesis, which has to do with the nature of human preferences, and which would be a quite serious problem, even—in fact, especially—in a hypothetical transhumanist utopia designed by atheists.

The Order of Limits

Let me start by making one point, which I have said before, and which I consider to be utterly obvious.  It is stupid to think that Omniscience makes the Argument from Evil stronger.  It obviously makes it weaker.  The argument I mentioned above:

If God is all-wise, he will be aware of the best method for eliminating evil,

presupposes that God’s infinitely greater wisdom only matters for purposes of selecting the most intelligent means, to accomplish those goals that we in our finite human wisdom have identified as good.  But it is equally possible that God’s greater wisdom will involve him pursuing higher goals that humans are unaware of.  God could well be aware of forms of goodness we have no clue about.  (As well as seeing various ways in which our own goals might be better served, by first putting us through a sequence of events that doesn’t seem to us like a good way to accomplish those goals.)

It is pure hubris to think that God’s infinitely greater intelligence would only be like a higher technology in service of human ends.  Rather than also giving him a higher perspective on what are the goods most worth acquiring.

In other words, the Argument from Evil would be most convincing, if it were about a being who has human-level wisdom, but universally benevolent, and infinitely* powerful.  I certainly agree that such a being would be unlikely to construct a world that looks like our own.  But that is not the Judaeo-Christian doctrine about God, is it?

[*Footnote: except, to make the hypothetical work, the infinitely powerful being would have to be somehow prohibited from using one of their wishes to wish for greater wisdom?  The thought experiment doesn’t really make sense, but that isn’t the point of the thought experiment, so let’s ignore its internal contradictions.]

On the other hand, if we imagine an infinitely wise being with finite power (but still universally benevolent) it is quite hard for me to imagine that I know what such a being might think are the most important priorities.  It could very easily be something quite different from my own top priorities.

Remember, infinite wisdom is a lot of wisdom. Now wisdom is not quite the same thing as intelligence, but if we consider intelligence then one of the smartest people who have ever lived is St. John von Neumann.  Suppose we imagine a being who is as much smarter than John von Neumann, in the same ratio that von Neumann is smarter than an average 4-year old child (let’s call this being HvN for hyper-Von Neumann).  Then HvN is presumably able to have an enormous number of qualitatively important insights, that would be impossible for HvN to explain even to Von Neumann.  And this is a being who still has a finite amount of wisdom.  The same is true of hyper-hyper-Von Neumann (HHvN), hyper-hyper-hyper-Von Neumann (HHHvN) etc.  But God would be smarter than all of these.  (And, if you accept, as most modern mathematicians do, St. Georg Cantor’s theory of transfinite cardinals of different size, then we probably aren’t even done yet.  God’s wisdom would not be exhausted just by saying it is infinite—it is bigger than the hierarchy of all possible infinities!)  So who knows what an infinitely wise being would do?

And note, that, at less than one iteration of this process, there are already plenty of evils (like needing to brush one’s teeth and go to the dentist) that the average 4-year old is not likely to be able to understand the reasons for, but an average adult can understand.  (Of course, the 4-year old could simply trust their parents that there is a good reason to brush teeth, but this would involve faith in a higher authority, not the 4-year old’s own reason.)

I’ve been using a bit of rhetoric here to drive home my point, by harping on how alien an infinitely wise being is likely to be, compared to us.  To be sure, it is equally valuable to meditate on the other prongs of the argument—just how much compassion a perfectly good God would have towards a child who gets cruelly murdered etc.  But proponents of the Argument from Evil have doubtless already rhetorically hammered on these points enough for almost everyone to know what that would look like.  I am inviting such proponents to meditate on a different prong of their argument, for a change.

So, the Argument from Evil seems likely to be solvable if God is (infinitely wise, reasonably finite power level).  And it seems likely to be unsolvable if God is (reasonably finite wisdom, infinitely powerful).  What if (as Classical Theism holds) God is infinite in both respects?  Well then, I maintain that it is at least not obvious which of these 2 cases gives a better analogy to the (infinitely wise, infinitely powerful) case.  It’s a bit like one of those functions F(x,y) in calculus where you get one answer if you take the x → ∞ limit first, and a different answer if you take the y → ∞ limit first.  So the value of F(∞,∞) is ambiguous.

Except that, the whole point of my argument is that we don’t really know what happens when the “wisdom” parameter is taken to be enormously large values, even if those values are finite.  Maybe, insight into goodness tops out some wisdom level W, and all beings wiser than W would basically all agree about what goods are worth pursuing (and what means should be used to attain them, whenever said means are possible).  Then, any being wiser than W would either be able to “justify God’s ways to”—well maybe not “man”, but to somebody sufficiently far up in the sequence (vN, HvN, HHvN, HHHvN…).  Or, alternatively, maybe a being wiser than W would be able to tell that the Argument from Evil was perfectly sound.  But I see no particular reason why this should happen at a human level of intelligence.

On the other hand, it is also possible that infinite wisdom leads to some qualitatively new insights about goodness that aren’t accessible to anyone in that sequence.

Which of these is more important, God knowing more about goodness than I do, or God being so powerful that he has ways of avoiding having to ever make a tradeoff?  Beats me!  But if agnosticism is justified concerning this critical question, then the Argument from Evil seems to rest on some pretty shaky foundations.

Maximizing Functions

Without assuming it is accurate in every respect, let us consider a crassly consequentialist model of the “God knows about more kinds of goods than we do” scenario.  Let’s write a function \(f(w)\) that sums up all the kinds of goodness which we humans are aware of.  Here let \(w \in W\) where \(W\) is the set of all the (logically consistent) possible ways the world might be.  Now let us suppose that God is aware of the existence of other important kinds of goodness besides the ones we are aware of.  Call these additional goods \(g(w)\).  So the total goodness is the sum:

$$\mathrm{Total} \, \mathrm{Goodness}(w) \,=\, f(w) + g(w)$$

Let us suppose this function has a maximum possible value, and that God selects whichever world \(w\) maximizes total goodness.  (Or if there is a tie, he picks one of the maxima arbitrarily.)

What are the odds that the world \(w\) which God selects, maximizes not only \(f + g\), but also \(f\)?  Well it is impossible to say for sure, without knowing what the function \(g(w)\) is.  But intuitively the answer seems to be, vanishingly unlikely (approaching probability 0), unless there is some reason why the function \(g(w)\) happens to be 0, or directly proportional to \(f(w)\), or some other weird thing happens.

This deviation will, almost by definition, appear to us to take the form of a gratuitous evil, since \(f(w)\) is smaller than it might have been and we are unaware of \(g(w)\).  So, on this hypothesis, we should be highly confident that God will create a world with at least one form of gratuitous evil.  It seems like this is even more likely to be true in a more realistic model where worlds \(w\) differ in a very high dimensional space.

How different will the optimum world be, from the apparent optimum?  They could be quite “close” if \(g(w)\) is small compared to \(f(w)\).  But we have no particular reason to think this is true.  If \(g(w)\) is comparable in size to \(f(w)\) or bigger, then maybe the maxima lie in quite different directions.

Aside: Some Goods May Be Incomparable

Now actually, my moral and theological beliefs are quite a bit different from the setup above.  I don’t think goodness is really a number.  I think sometimes things can be compared, and sometimes they can’t be.

In my view, there are many (radically incomparable) different forms of goodness, and (like an artist writing a novel) nobody has any right to complain if God creates one form of good over another, as long as the world is actually good, and there’s no way he could have done a better job at making that particular good thing he was aiming at.

God is already supremely good before he makes anything at all, and in that sense all of creation is gratuitous.  But, once we specify what specific type(s) of goodness God is aiming for, it seems inevitable that there are better and worse ways of going about it, and therefore in some specific aspects, the consequentialist model above probably captures a fair amount of truth.

However, if these beliefs are right, none of the corrections I have made in this section seem to make the Problem of Evil harder to solve.  If anything, they make it easier to solve.  (There might be a question of why a God who is already supremely good made anything at all, but this is a different theological problem.)

If you are an AI-Doomer, you should reject the Argument from Evil

Let me put the argument another way.  Perhaps some of my readers belong to the Singularity school of thought (people who are hopeful/worried about AI bootstrapping itself into an enormously superhuman level of power in a short amount of time).  To such readers, I would note that the following beliefs seem to have incompatible justifications:

1. High risk of Yudkowsky-style AI doom (conditional on a powerful AI being built)
2. The Argument from Evil is devastating evidence against standard Theism.

As I understand it, the argument for (1) partly proceeds through the claim that an agentic AI can be modeled as a utility maximizer.  While the AI’s utility function is likely to overlap in some ways with ours (since we built it to accomplish some tasks), relatively small mistakes in the AI’s utility function, are (in this view) likely to lead to consequences which most humans will regard as grievously evil (e.g. human extinction or perpetual slavery).  Basically, the idea is that utility maximization is a harsh mistress.  Since whatever maximizes one set of goals perfectly, will often be a very bad fit to any other set of goals.  And if the utility maximizer has enormous power, so that the maximization is done over a very wide space of possibilities, we aren’t in a good position to predict whether such a universe will be human-friendly.

But now consider the view Theism + Moral Realism.  On this view, God is an agent who seeks objective goodness.  For purposes of this argument, let us model goodness as maximizing some utility function, which partially overlaps with human preferences.  But as pointed out above, if there are any additional terms in the function (e.g. types of good which God knows about and we don’t) then (if you buy the argument in the previous paragraph) it seems almost certain that the world will contain certain things that humans see as grievous evils, upon extreme optimization over God’s “utility function”, as it were.

In fact, if you are a dystopian about AI, that means you must regard our current world (prior to the predicted AI apocalypse, anyway) as rather surprisingly human-friendly, among the space of worlds optimized by utility functions slightly different from our own.  A world where, if the AI had produced it, the AI-doomers would all breathe a big sigh of relief that alignment had gone better than expected, even if we didn’t get the Transhumanist Utopia.  But that means that the existence of apparently grievous evil is actually expected on the hypothesis of a benevolent God!  (That is, if you buy the AI-doom argument.)

In other words, if you think:

1. High probability of great evil, given a powerful AI whose preferences are slightly “incorrect” relative to human preferences,

you should also think:

2. High probability of (apparent) great evil, given that human preferences are slightly “incorrect” relative to divine preferences.

Of course, the God of Classical Theism is vastly more powerful than any AI could be, but it is not clear that this helps, since (in the case of the AI) people think that the more powerful it is, the more concerned they should be.

Does this mean that humans should hate and fear God, the way AI-doomers hate and fear unaligned AI?  Well, I would agree that a certain type of “fear” is appropriate, towards a powerful being with somewhat inscrutable goals.  There is a reason why the Bible talks about the “fear of the Lord” as a characteristic trait of pious people.  But if moral realism is true, I don’t think that hatred can be appropriate towards a being that maximizes true goodness.  (Imagine, if it makes it easier, that you would come around to God’s point of view after a million years of what Yudkowsky calls “coherent extrapolated volition”.)  Note also that this view does not imply moral skepticism, as the things we care about can still be really morally good, and the things we dislike can still be really morally bad.  It’s just that God just cares about some additional things, that we don’t know about.

Degree of Inexplicability Not Proportional to Magnitude

It is tempting to say, well maybe this sort of theodicy explains stubbed toes or a lack of parking spaces, but surely it does not justify allowing mass starvation, rape, children dying of cancer etc.  But really it all depends on what is contained in the mystery box \(g(w)\), and how important it is.

Intuitively, there is a pretty big difference between a stubbed toe and childhood cancer.  It feels like explaining away the latter is almost offensive to the child or parents.  And indeed, in the presence of those who are suffering grave evils, one should be cautious about speaking in a glib way about God’s plans.  But this social rule of politeness also applies when speaking to people who are convinced that their suffering is part of God’s plan.  So this rule of politeness is hardly substantive evidence that there is no divine plan.

That said, it seems like a conceptual mistake to identify how apparently “gratuitous” an evil is with how large it is.  It is just as mysterious to me what good is gained when we stub our toes, as it is why some children get leukemia.  Indeed, the more severe an evil is, the more likely it is to build character or something else (infuriatingly) edifying, rather than just cause irritation without personal growth.

Part II. The Problem of Moral Action

Let us now consider a potentially serious paradox if we accept the above framework.  Suppose that there really are greater goods that justify all the evils in the world, it might seem to have the unpalatable consequence that it would be bad to try to improve the world.  For suppose we truly believe the world maximizes the goodness function \(f(w) + g(w)\).  If we try to change the world in a way that increases \(f\), presumably we decrease \(g\) by a greater amount and end up in a worse place.

So seemingly we shouldn’t try to cure cancer, or help little old ladies cross the street, or prevent rape, or anything like that, since any defects we see are part of God’s purpose.  But that is morally absurd (and also contrary to the teachings of most Theistic religions, where God commands us to do good deeds).

Of course, since God also made us, we can’t really think about God’s goals in isolation from what we do.  As a result, it is not clear that this unpalatable conclusion actually holds.  But, to speak more carefully, not every possible bundle of hidden goods \(g\) will have the property that it still justifies our attempts to improve things.  Only some possible \(g\)’s will have this property.  So, this does place a serious constraint on the kinds of justification that are possible.  It has to be a justification that is compatible with the continual struggle to morally improve the world.

But this fact, once we acknowledge it, has pretty significant implications for the whole problem.  And not all of these implications are bad for Theism.  Some of them help to explain certain aspects of why God might allow the existence of apparently gratuitous evils.

The Correct Explanation Might Not Be Satisfying or Helpful

It is tempting to say, “Why doesn’t God at least explain why evil exists, so that we can be satisfied that our suffering is for a good reason?”  This might not eliminate the evils, but it would at least make them no longer appear to be gratuitous.

But there is no reason to think that, even if the answer is comprehensible to us (it might not be) that we would find it emotionally satisfying to learn the answer.  One thing that I have learned in life is to be suspicious whenever anyone says “I could bear my suffering if only I had [specific unobtainable consolation C]”.  Sometimes when the C is finally obtained, it  doesn’t help as much as we think it would.  The only way to be confident that this sort of thing is true, is if we actually had C and found that it helped us.  Obviously, we are not in this position when it comes to the Problem of Evil.

So it is quite possible that God doesn’t explain the reason for allowing evil, because he knows that if we did, we wouldn’t like it.  (Even though it actually is explanatory.)

The odds are good that the true explanation has some steps like “Let me first sit you through several courses in microbiology so that you see how inevitable it is that copying errors will appear in DNA of life forms like you.  Now let me say why I appreciate biology enough that I don’t just do random miracles to stop it.”*  Are you any happier now that your kid got cancer?  What if there are footnotes answering all the obvious objections?

[*Footnote: I don’t mean that this is an actually correct theodicy that should convince you.  Just that the actual one could be something which is similarly unsatisfying.]

No?  Then you didn’t want that reason.  You wanted something else: a compelling life narrative in which suffering (even if you don’t know the specifics of why it happens) contributes in a meaningful way to your own personal beatitude (and that of your child in this hypothetical).  What you really need is inspiring stories about how historical people just like you have overcome the suffering and become heroes and saints.  In other words, to meet your emotional needs, what will really help is precisely the kind of consolation that a religion like Christianity actually offers, most especially through its view that suffering unites us to God if we offer it back to him, through the crucified Christ.  Even if it doesn’t feel like solving the Problem of Evil in the abstract sense originally posed.

Or let’s put this another way.  What would satisfy us as “Solving the Problem of Evil”?  What most of us want, if God exists, is for him to tell us some specific fact A that makes it so we don’t have to struggle anymore with the seeming futility of life.  But if the moral struggle is part of the point (of our current stage of existence), then it necessarily follows that God had better not to tell us fact A.  Because if he does, we will stop struggling with it!  Perhaps he can tell us other things, but not that.  (Not yet.)

Or, suppose no such fact exists, but there is some other good reason B for our struggle, but it has the property that learning would not cause us to stop struggling.  Well then, in that case, learning will not feel emotionally like a good explanation for evil.  And this is precisely because it doesn’t cause us to stop struggling with the fact of evil.  So if God specifically wants us to mature through a process of struggle, we can’t expect to be fully emotionally satisfied by any presently available explanation as to why we struggle.

To summarize, if there is a good reason for God to have us suffer, then it follows God won’t not tell us the reason for that suffering, unless knowing that reason doesn’t cause us to stop suffering, and is therefore emotionally unsatisfactory.

Of course, having discovered this reasoning, I already feel a bit better about God not telling me why I suffer!  So perhaps I am undermining my own argument a bit here.  But, it could also be true that there is an important difference between my having a theory about suffering exists, versus a hypothetical situation where we know the answer because God tells us explicitly.

Why Do Pandas Exist?

The Argument from Evil has the greatest force if, conditional on both God and evil existing, we would expect to know the reasons for the evil to exist.  (Then we can appeal to the fact that in the real world, there are seemingly gratuitous evils, where “gratuitous” means there isn’t a  good reason, contrary to our expectations on Theism.)

But do we have the right to expect this, even conditional on Theism?  I think it is important to put the problem of evil in perspective, by noting that almost everything we observe in the universe seems similarly gratuitous, in the sense that we don’t know its purpose for existing.

To be sure, people don’t complain very much about gratuitous non-evils.  But that doesn’t make them any easier to understand from an intellectual point of view.

For example, why do pandas exist?  Is it to be cute and fuzzy?  Is it because they give humans joy?  A plausible theodicy, but we don’t really know that this is why God made pandas.  (Or snakes, or beetles, or…)  If we don’t know the function and role that even seemingly good things play, in the ultimate purpose of creation, then why would we expect to know the function and role of seemingly bad things?

(One cannot simply appeal to their goodness, as there is a huge variety of good things God might have made.  Why are there pandas instead of dragons?  Who knows!)

This may be part of the meaning of the Answer to Job in the Bible.  It’s not as if we were in a position to say to God, “OK, I know why you did everything else, it’s totally obvious why there had to be elliptical galaxies and all those beetles, but what about evil?”  Most people can’t even give a good explanation why humans exist, let alone all these other things in creation.

Evolutionary Theodicy

Or maybe we do know why pandas exist?

There’s another way to interpret what God says to Job.  “I can’t explain why evil exists in your current state of development.  But I’ll give you a big hint, for the benefit of future generations.  It has something to do with why there are so many different kinds of animal species that behave in lots of crazy ways!”

Many generations later, Darwin comes along.  We now know something people didn’t know in the past, which is that the brutal competition to avoid death and find love, is actually powerful enough to create new animal species and in fact, this is the reason why there are so many amazingly cool animals and plants out there.  Wild!

But, that means we do now know at least part of the reason for all the death and striving in the animal kingdom.  It was needed to produce humans.  (Not just us, of course, but also cats and dogs and horses etc.)  If God had decided that all creatures get to flourish equally, there wouldn’t have been any creatures like us in the first place.  The reason you have all these unfulfilled strivings (to avoid pain, seek arduous goods, acquire a mate etc.) is precisely that it was only those who struggled in this way, who were able to pass on their genetic heritage to future generations.

You have pain because it was useful for the survival of your ancestors.  Thus, the evils that appear in evolutionary history clearly play a causal role in the creation of human beings. And human beings are good.  Therefore the evils in past evolutionary history were, at least in broad strokes, justified by the final outcome.  You, in turn, have that same capacity to suffer, precisely because it is the biological legacy passed on to you by your ancestors.

I already told you that you wouldn’t like the explanation for evil, and that it wouldn’t resolve your suffering, or make much difference to how you live your life.  But you didn’t believe me then, did you?  Do you believe me now?

Some readers might have the following objection: God could have created life forms by some completely different method.  For example, like Young Earth Creationism (YEC) or something.  But precisely because Darwinian evolution is so—well explanatory—there is something about this view that strikes me as being fundamentally silly, like the YEC trees being created with rings already in them, or the YEC Adam and Eve having belly buttons, despite not having been born in the usual way.  But the point is far more profound than this.  The fact is, our evolutionary history is partly constitutive of who we are.  If God created life forms ab initio, without evolution or pain or striving, surely they wouldn’t look anything like humans, with our bundles of animal drives.  They wouldn’t even look like ideally happy humans.  They would have to look like something completely different.  Like angels or something.

But in that case, we wouldn’t exist.  So is it good for human beings to exist?  If so, why shouldn’t God create them?

You could bite the bullet and say that God should have simply created intelligent beings very different from us.  It’s plausible.  But it also reduces my confidence that such a world would really be better, since it would be quite radically different from our own.  Our confidence in our ability to assess the goodness of a world, should surely diminish as we get farther away from the domains in which our common sense applies.

(Of course, traditional Christian theology says God did create angels; he just didn’t stop there.  God went on to also create humans.  So the answer might be that it is indeed better to create angels than humans, but having created the angels, God decided the world would be even better if it also contained evolved animals such as us.)

I don’t actually know if this amounts to a complete theodicy.  It may only be one piece of the puzzle.  But it is rather interesting that there is a nontrivial theodicy buried within Darwinian Evolution, even though this is widely regarded by many people as the scientific theory most supportive of Atheism.

Of course, that is because of its implications against (certain forms of) the Argument from Design (as well as the fundamentalist interpretation of Genesis) leading to many religious folks having an immune reaction against Evolution.  But in this post we are now considering the Argument from Evil, not the Argument from Design.  There is nothing contradictory about Darwinism partially undermining both of these classic arguments, for and against Theism.

The Ubermensch

Our current struggles put you in continuity and sympathy with past life forms, whose struggles absolutely were necessarily in order to create you.  What about the future course of evolution?  Here’s another idea that might make Nietzsche happy: your current struggles might well create an evolutionary gradient that will result in the emergence some superhuman life form.

It is true that some (mostly not-very-Christian people) around the start of the 20th century got rather too excited by the possibilities of humans evolving into the ubermensch, and a bunch of silly and horrible things happened as a result.

While evolution might indeed occur in the future, I reject the idea that we should make this into a religion.  We shouldn’t worship our descendants, any more than we should worship our ancestors.  As St. Lewis wrote:

There is no sense in talking of `becoming better’ if better means simply `what we are becoming’ — it is like congratulating yourself on reaching your destination and defining destination as `the place you have reached’.  Mellontolatry, the worship of the future, is a fuddled religion.
(“Evil and God”)

At least in the case of our ancestors, if we choose to worship them, we have some notions what they were actually like.  But in the case of our distant descendants, it would just be a blank canvas to project our fancies.  For all we know they will be completely different from what we think they are going to be.

It is true that, if the world lasts long enough, future evolution may well create more evolved forms of the human race, and all this might in turn morally justify some amount of whatever “survival of the fittest” is taking place in the present.  But this is speculative, since none of us knows what is going to happen in the future. If you put all of your eggs in this basket, you’ll look pretty silly if Jesus comes back sometime in the next few thousand years, and ends history before this hypothetical new evolutionary stage emerges.

The Christian worldview is bigger than the cosmos, not smaller.  So we should be willing to acknowledge whatever truth there is in other worldviews, even if those other views aren’t seeing the entire picture.  As a Christian, I can accept that there are elements of truth to the Nietzschean philosophy, that struggle is a valuable thing and shouldn’t be eliminated.  But there are lots of other moral truths that need to be held in balance with this one.

If learning about evolutionary struggle makes some people think it is OK to go around starting fistfights, collecting harems, and pissing in other people’s swimming pools, then maybe there’s a reason God didn’t spell all of this out in the Book of Genesis.  Maybe instead of asking God why he allows evil, we should instead ask ourselves whether we humans are sufficiently trustworthy for God to explicitly tell us the explanation for evil.

Instead of trying to breed a new human race, maybe we should focus on trying to be good people.  Of course, you are allowed to have (some) opinions about what you think people should be like, when you choose a spouse and raise your kids.  But maybe we should leave the long-term management of the human gene pool to God.

We Christians have very good reasons to believe that God’s ideal for human behavior is closer to St. Francis of Assisi, than to Genghis Khan—the most evolutionarily “successful” man of his generation!  But without evolutionary history, you don’t get Francis any more than you get Genghis.  Francis had the same animal impulses, to retaliate and lust, that you or I have.  His meekness was like the gentleness of a tamed lion.  Not that of a mouse too small to do much harm.

Part III: The Problem of Humanity

Suppose we accept that it a good thing for human beings to exist—then on that supposition, the Argument from Evil amounts to this.  We are saying to God: “I’m okay with being a primate with a big brain, dedicated not just to seeking food and sex and affection, but also solving complex, difficult problems.  But, I also want to be placed in a world where there are actually no important problems that need solving, or at least none that I care about enough to affect my happiness.  Just give me the food and love, without me having to do anything to get them.  And please don’t let me get bored either.”

That comes across to me as a bit lazy and spoiled.

Perhaps it is even true, that the more moral virtue we have—in the sense of routinely accepting difficult or painful tasks for the sake of achieving greater goods—the less plausible we will find the Argument from Evil.  Because virtue gives us the lived experience of bringing goods out of evils (apparent or actual).  So the more we are able to do that, the more we will see the goods that can only exist when we overcome badness.  Conversely, a cynical and selfish person, is almost bound to see the world as more deeply bad than it actually is, whenever it contradicts their most superficial desires.  (Note that I am not implying that people who raise the Argument from Evil are acting on bad moral motivations, at the moment they raise the question.  What I am talking about is something happening at a deeper and prior level, before the argument is ever raised.)  Admittedly there are other ways in which being a good person makes our hatred of evil sharper, so the balance here is not entirely straightforward.

Somebody could say, well maybe virtue is only good because (unfortunately) it is necessary to do hard things in this world, and that’s why we admire it.  But in a hypothetical perfect world where nothing bad happened, virtue would also be unnecessary.  We could be cowardly and selfish, and it just wouldn’t matter because there would be neither danger nor competition.   On such a utilitarian view, virtue doesn’t really matter for its own sake.  It only matters to the extent that it leads to more pleasure or less pain.

But I don’t share this view.  I think it is good to be a good person, not just that it is instrumentally useful for gaining hedonic pleasures.  Indeed the so-called “happiness” of a hedonist is trivial, in comparison with the meaningfulness of a typical life of virtue.

What is the Optimal History?

In fact, the existence of large problem-solving brains, itself problematizes the entire concept of maximizing goodness, at least if this is considered in a static sense.  Suppose the world were already optimal, i.e. the best world possible, at the time that human beings first came into existence.  Then, there would seemingly be not much point in God creating intelligent animals like us.  Because animal intelligence involves the ability to imagine the world as different from how it is, and then to act to bring about that change.  But if the world is already optimal, than any change we make will make it worse, and that seems to make the use of intelligence a bad thing, rather than a good one.

But this is a paradox.  Because from another perspective, intelligent life is the highest, best, and most valuable good thing, among all the things we experience.  If intelligence were purely instrumental, that would imply you should be willing to sacrifice almost all of your intelligence to achieve your other goals, like pleasure.  But this is an absurd wireheading scenario.  (In this thought experiment, I am assuming it is possible to have large amounts of consciousness/pleasure, without much intelligence.)

So what is the best possible way to have intelligent beings like humans that meaningfully use their intelligence?

One possible way out, is for God to try to optimize for the best history, rather than the best static world-state.  That is, the world could be one that starts out imperfect, but eventually (at least in part as a result of human struggle, without ruling out a possible need for divine intervention) achieves a state of complete perfection.  (Of course, you could worry that once we reach perfection, the same problems will recur, but I will postpone that discussion to the end of this essay.)

Suppose this scenario is true.  Then at a sufficiently early state of our development, we should expect to find ourselves in a situation where the world is imperfect and requires fixing.  Well guess what?  Look around, and that’s just what we see!  Suspicious, huh.

Nothing I have said in this section necessarily requires libertarian free will.  But if it turns out that we do have such free will, then it is of course possible that some of our free actions will make things worse, rather than better.  This basic observation is different from trying to attribute all evils to free will, which is not at all the idea that I am proposing here.  (Though, there may be more attributable to this than we think.  For example, if nobody ever made the kinds of evil choices that cause or require wars, and if all that time and energy had gone to medicine instead, presumably there would now be far more cures for diseases.  Thus, many current events that we frame as natural evils, could be reframed as consequences of past moral evils.)

It should be noted that this moral action theodicy, like the free will defense, obviously overcomes the objection that it de-motivates moral action.  If a major part of the reason why the world contains imperfections is so we can remove those imperfections, then obviously this will motivate, rather than de-motivate, moral action.

The Garden of Eden

Someone might object by mentioning the story of the Garden of Eden in Genesis.  I’ve already mentioned Adam and Eve, so this is fair game.  Doesn’t Christianity claim that human beings did start in a perfect state, and only lost it because they sinned, by eating the forbidden fruit (that is, the Fruit of the Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil)?

To be sure, multiple aspects of this story would need to be interpreted non-literally in order to be compatible with Darwinian Evolution, a fact which any scientific worldview needs to incorporate.  But if we relax a bit, and just read the story as a story, it seems to describe a world without sin and death.  So isn’t that the perfect world we are looking for?

I would deny this claim.  A world without sin is not the same as a world where nothing bad ever happens.  Even if we go by the literal text, Genesis indicates that there was pain before the Fall (Gen 3:16), and also things that were not good (Gen 2:18).  Even before the Fall, there was a mission to name the animals and to tend the garden.  And there was already a conflict brewing with the crafty serpent, implying that (to remain sinless) Adam and Eve were required to resist some of their own desires, an experience which is not usually 100% pleasant for the persons concerned.

Following a more Eastern Orthodox approach to the story, I would see Adam and Eve not as being perfect in the sense of maximally mature, but rather as being at the very beginning of their story, rather than at the end of their story.  We don’t know how what the middle of the story would have looked like, if they hadn’t sinned.  It could even be, that if Adam and Eve had resisted temptation for long enough, God would have eventually permitted them to sinlessly eat from the Tree of Knowledge.  (Knowledge is an inherently good thing, not a bad thing.  The problem was trying to acquire this particular knowledge by disobeying God, and also at a time when they were insufficiently mature to deal with the consequences of this knowledge.)  In any case, the story doesn’t tell us what would have happened next if they hadn’t succumbed to the first temptation, since they did succumb.  And as they say, the rest is history.

Haggling over the Price

Anyway, I certainly admit that there could well be lots of ways of introducing removable imperfections into the universe, that don’t involve anything near as great a degree of suffering as we see in the real world.  Or, where we have enormous bliss at the same time as we solve a bunch of intellectually stimulating puzzles.  Or at the very least where there isn’t death at the end of every road.  (Though most Theists think we survive death in one way or another.)

But at some level, this is just haggling over the price.  All of us can point to significant changes we would like to see in the world.  At the same time, that is exactly what this theodicy would predict—that there will be features of the world we find unsatisfactory and want to remove if possible, and also that it should not always be obvious how to remove them (since otherwise intelligent thought would not be needed).  And we can’t expect to solve all the problems either, not if there is to be anything left for future generations to do.

There are lots of possible quantities of evil in the world that could be imagined.  But wherever on that spectrum God places the human race, it’s always going to seem to us like he should have included a bit less evil.  And this is presumably going to be true all the way up to the point where, from the standpoint of our current world and its evolved preferences, we would see that there would then be not very much point in having intelligent creatures at all.  (Perhaps there really is an objectively optimum amount of evil to overcome, in which case God would presumably have created the human race right at that optimum point.  But I have very little idea how to assess how much or how little evil that is, relative to what we currently experience.)

Trying to solve the Problem of Evil here and now, is a bit like expecting to have, in the middle of an adventure story, the same sense of satisfying closure that you have at the end of the story, after the main character is rescued from the trials and tribulations which prevented them from getting what they wanted.  Maybe you can have this the second time you read the book, but not the first time (assuming you don’t like spoilers).

Again, it’s okay if you hate it.  Nothing about this explanation implies you will feel satisfied with this explanation.  At some level, you shouldn’t!  Bad stuff is bad and you aren’t supposed to like it.  You are supposed to fix and/or endure it.  You aren’t required to like it.

We Prefer Stories where Bad Things Happen

But maybe we don’t hate it as much as we think?  I just mentioned stories.  Consider our revealed preferences about that.  When all of our basic physical needs are met (or when we don’t want to face our problems) our favorite pastime as humans is to tell each other stories.  Campside stories, bedtime stories, TV, books, movies, video games etc.

And one thing we absolutely insist on, almost always, is that these stories should have some bad things happen in them!  Problems to overcome.  Villains to fight, victims to rescue.  Or conflicts of value, hard choices that reveal character.  Trials that test characters, or break them.  Finding revenge, or redemption.  If there is nothing bad to overcome, the story is (usually) considered boring.  (Maybe this isn’t true of strictly all stories, there might be some stories without much bad stuff, but it takes a very good writer to keep that interesting!  And certainly nobody would want all stories to be like that.)  It’s okay for the story to have a good ending, but only if there was something to overcome in the middle.  (But there are also people who prefer tragedies and sad endings!)

Isn’t that strange!  We want to remove bad stuff from our actual lives, but that makes us bored, so we insist on bringing bad stuff back in by the back door, as long as it is fictional evil.  Since this is something we all take for granted, being accustomed to it from our youths, I suggest that you stop, and really contemplate for 120 consecutive seconds, just how weird this (almost) universal human desire is.

Secretly, in the spirit deep within our hearts, we already know that some evils are necessary, in order for certain great goods to exist.  Let me be clear, I am not claiming that you should believe this based on the above arguments.  Rather, I am claiming that you already believe this, whether you recognize it or not.

To answer an obvious objection, I agree of course that a fictional bad event is quite different morally from a real bad even, i.e. it isn’t necessarily actually bad.  For example, fictional people don’t really suffer, we only pretend that they do.  If fictional evil were really evil, then it would be morally problematic to write fiction in which terrible events occur, and nobody thinks that this is the case.  (Perhaps it is sometimes immoral to write dreary nihilistic fiction, but if so this is only true because it demoralizes actual human beings.)

Nevertheless, our love for the fictional story represents a real desire in us.  So it is striking that this love not only allows, but often requires bad things to exist, in the story.  And this love suggests, in turn, that there is something good about worlds that include evil, that simply cannot be found in worlds without it.

And of course, many people enjoy confronting potential evils in the real world—it’s called a sense of adventure.  We certainly like hearing about stories of adventure that really happened too.  In fact, as long as the story is equally good, it is more interesting to us if it really happened.  Though for most of us, we would prefer for it to happen to somebody else!  But if bad things never happened to anyone, presumably we wouldn’t know how to tell or enjoy stories about it happening.  So even fictional badness requires some real badness (even if only a limited amount of it).

Somebody could say, well maybe we only like stories which include bad stuff because we are evolved to face bad stuff in the real world.   So in a world where nothing bad happened, we would also not have a taste for adventure stories, and we wouldn’t get bored not having them.  But doesn’t that seem… at least a little bit bad?  There is a genuine good in these adventure stories, and it seems like in some ways the perfect people would be missing out, not being able to appreciate them like we do.  But then, if these stories capture some sort of goodness that requires evil to exist, then surely this implies the existence of a partial justification for evil?

If some amount of fictional evil is needed to maximize fictional good, then plausibly some amount of actual evil is needed to maximize actual good.  And perhaps, the actual goods concerned, are not completely unrelated to the goods that we appreciate in stories: adventure, interestingness, a dramatic plot etc.  Perhaps, one of the differences between God’s notion of goodness and are own, is not that so much that he values some things we think are evil, but rather that he sees that some of things we genuinely like (in certain contexts), are in reality far more valuable even then we think they are, when viewed from an eternal perspective.

At any rate, our taste in stories implies that, if we were just judging God’s creation as if it were a fictional narrative, from an aesthetic viewpoint rather than a moral one, we would certainly judge that it had better contain evil.  At any rate, in order to not feel that way about life, human beings would need to relate to the concepts of good/bad in a rather different way than we do so now.  (Perhaps, we would need to be a species without “the knowledge of good and evil”?)

From this purely aesthetic perspective, one could even argue that maybe our modern world doesn’t have nearly enough evil! Since most people’s lives are rather dull from a day-to-day basis, with most of our daily needs met, and no dramatic actions needed.  Most people need to seek out adventure, by reading about other people’s problems (people whose lives are usually much less pleasant than average).  On the other hand, from a moral perspective, since real people aren’t fictional characters, we also have good moral reasons to want them to suffer less, out of mercy.  So maybe this world is actually a compromise between the two perspectives, the aesthetic one and the moral one.  With enough drama to be interesting, but not enough to ruin the majority of day-to-day pleasures.

(Admittedly this doesn’t do much to explain evils that are also boring and tedious, like factory work and so on.  Though a lot of these evils come from our choice to organize society in a particular way.)

Again, I don’t know if this is the correct theodicy.  Perhaps it is mostly off-base.  But there is at least one insight from this discussion which I am quite confident about.  Which is this lesson:

I can’t think of any conceivable scenario in which human beings as we know them are totally happy, without some badness to overcome somewhere.

In other words, it’s not that I can identify some specific way to run the world, in which everything is perfectly hunky-dory, but our human-level intelligence is also meaningfully exploited, and I am wondering why God doesn’t do that.  Rather, I can’t see any way to avoid some evil existing (even if these might be different evils than the ones we actually see in the real world.)  Maybe Omniscience would see another solution, but I can’t.  To me, any such solution is, and I mean this word advisedly, inconceivable.  By this, I mean, not that it is logically impossible, but rather that if there is a solution, I don’t think any human being on Earth has succeeded in conceiving it.

To be sure, there are plenty of specific bad things about the world, that I would change if I could.  I never denied that, and in fact it is part of my argument.  What I find impossible to imagine, is a world in which everything is perfect, by human standards.  I claim that a world like that is literally impossible to imagine.  Or put another way, any utopia which you can imagine will always have some aspects which are unsatisfactory, and will thus not be fully compatible with our present human conceptions of what a good life should look like.

Transhumanism and the New Jerusalem 

This is why, in transhumanist utopian fiction, once technology reaches the point where almost all problems are overcome, there is often a somewhat bittersweet tone, once you realize the characters living in that society have little to strive for.  Or in a long fantasy series, after the main character becomes a wizard-god so powerful that they can just do whatever they want, and then the character—or at least the reader—has to grapple with the resulting lack of meaning.  (Of course, most good storytellers are smart enough to never put their protagonists into this situation, since it usually ruins the story.)  These scenarios illustrate the sort of ennui which any actual paradise would have to somehow overcome, in order to truly be paradise.  (Here is a book review by Scott Alexander, discussing this problem.)

Of course, these scenarios are a pretty long way—and perhaps we should say, thank God—from what a typical human life looks like.  Although there is a little bit of an earthly parallel, in the archetype of the bored aristocratic hedonist:

There are things you need not know of,
though you live and die in vain,
There are souls more sick of pleasure
than you are sick of pain.

(The Aristocrat, St. Chesterton)

Perhaps some readers are tempted to say, well I certainly would never get bored with a life of prolonged pleasures and no other suffering.  But it is not clear why anyone should believe you, if you haven’t yet been put to that particular test.  Others among my readers might think that for precisely this reason, they wouldn’t want to live forever in Heaven, because surely (after a gazillion googleplex years, or if that isn’t enough, try Graham’s number) it would eventually become tedious.

Fortunately, the Christian concept of Heaven—or to use more accurate biblical language, “The New Heaven and New Earth”—isn’t vulnerable to this objection, that any conceivable infinitely prolonged utopia would end up being boring and shallow in the end.  The reason for this is simple: we can’t yet conceive it.  Not until after the Resurrection, when our bodies are made new, and when we see God face-to-face.  As St. Paul writes:

“What no eye has seen,
what no ear has heard,
and what no human mind has conceived”—
the things God has prepared for those who love him.
(1 Cor 2:9)

Since the New Heaven and New Earth isn’t conceivable by us, arguments about “all conceivable utopias” don’t apply to it.

Once again, I am using the word conceivability quite literally, to mean “capable of being conceived by our minds”, not as a cheap synonym for “logically possible”.   If I thought that the New Heaven and New Earth weren’t logically possible, then I obviously I couldn’t also believe that it will come to exist.  But there is no reason why every possible state of affairs must be imaginable by us, especially if that state of affairs is created by a God who exceeds our understanding, and in some way involves union with that God.  It might not even be measured by time, at least not in the exact same way that our current earthly existence is.  It might instead participate somehow in the timeless and eternal life of God, in which case we definitely can’t imagine it.

This is why the Christian hope is not subject to ennui.  Ennui arises when you get what you thought you wanted, but you still aren’t satisfied, and say “Is this all there is to life?”  But since the state of the redeemed is beyond our understanding, and requires going through a radical transformation as a preliminary, nothing in our current life experience contradicts the idea that those who love God can be perfectly happy and fulfilled, once we get there.  Without ever getting bored, or pining for an impossible state of affairs.

If we are eternally happy in God’s kingdom, then in turn justifies all the suffering we had to go through, in order to get into it.  At least, so long as having gone through suffering in some way improves our eternal experience once we get there.  And it’s hard to prove that this can’t be the case, if we don’t know what it is like to see God face-to-face in the first place.

It is easy enough to make the case that our current life is not fully satisfactory.  But if our current life is just a preliminary to another, greater life, then the things that make an earthly life good or bad might well be very different from what we now judge to be the case.  In other words, on the assumption of an afterlife which is radically different from our current one, it is virtually certain that the original idea I defended—that God will know a lot of stuff about goodness that we don’t—is going to be true.

As an analogy, our unborn existence in the womb was a preliminary to a greater life, that mostly couldn’t be imagined by an unborn child, who has no real concept of sight, taste, or open space.  Of course, the unborn child can still hear sounds and music from outside the womb.  Perhaps it is not a coincidence that music is one of the most common ways that religious literature describes the activity of the saints in heaven?

And don’t give me that stale line about “I don’t want to play a harp on a cloud”.  I’ve already said that we can’t imagine it, and cartoon imagery is definitely out of the question.  But even if we take the accusation on its own terms, who says it has to be a harp, if you prefer some other musical instrument?  As musically inclined people know, jamming with some friends on earth can be a transcendental experience, in which we somehow go out of ourselves, and feel as if we are participating in a higher harmony of existence.  A deeper rhythm, which reconciles us to all the sorrow and longing we’ve felt, by making it seem part of a greater and more significant wholeness.

On a religious outlook, this feeling gives us a real insight into the nature of reality.  The New Heaven and the New Earth will be something like that.  Only better.

In the Valley of the Shadow of Death

A lesson from Martin Luther on walking in faith during pandemics.

By Scott Church – Guest Blogger

After decimating nearly one-third of Europe during the 14th Century, the Bubonic plague continued to ravage it in periodic epidemics before it was effectively eradicated in the mid-20th Century (White, 2014; Schiferl, 1983; Griggs, 2014). For the most part, these outbreaks were isolated to villages or regions, and it was possible to flee to safety elsewhere until they subsided. In August of 1527, one such outbreak came to Wittenberg while Martin Luther was at the university there, and Elector Johann Hess of Saxony ordered him and other professors to flee to Jena for safety.

Luther refused, choosing instead to stay behind with his wife Katharina von Bora and open their home as a ward for the sick, whom they cared for at great personal risk to themselves. He penned a letter to Elector Johann explaining his reasons (Luther, 2020). Five centuries later, in the age of COVID-19, his words and the testimony of his life show us what true God-fearing faith during pandemics is… and more importantly, what it is NOT.

In his words,

“[W]hoever serves the sick for the sake of God’s gracious promise… has the great assurance that he shall in turn be cared for. God himself shall be his attendant and his physician, too. What an attendant he is! What a physician! Friend, what are all the physicians, apothecaries, and attendants in comparison to God? Should that not encourage one to go and serve a sick person, even though he might have as many contagious boils on him as hairs on his body, and though he might be bent double carrying a hundred plague-ridden bodies! … Therefore, dear friends, let us not become so desperate as to desert our own whom we are duty-bound to help and flee in such a cowardly way from the terror of the devil, or allow him the joy of mocking us and vexing and distressing God and all his angels…”

True disciples don’t deliberately put themselves in harm’s way out of mere fealty to church doctrine, or to appease worldly narratives and political agendas others have tarnished it with for reasons that serve their own interests rather than God’s. They do so in loving service to their neighbor. In the words of the apostle Paul, they offer themselves as living sacrifices, holy, acceptable to God, which is their reasonable service (Rom. 12:1).

Note the reference to reasonable service (from the KJV Bible)—Or as the Amplified Bible renders it, “rational (logical, intelligent) act of worship.” Genuine faith sees the face of Jesus in the poor, the oppressed, and the sick, and with full rational knowledge of the risks involved, seeks to be His healing face in their lives. It is in THAT place that we trust God’s Will for our best, and our neighbor’s.

By contrast, Luther tells us, there are those who,

“Sin on the right hand. They are much too rash and reckless, tempting God and disregarding everything which might counteract death and the plague. They disdain the use of medicines; they do not avoid places and persons infected by the plague, but lightheartedly make sport of it and wish to prove how independent they are. They say that it is God’s punishment; if he wants to protect them he can do so without medicines or our carefulness.”

This sort of “faith” will have nothing to do with reason (logic, intelligence). It flies recklessly in the face of real-world facts, rejects medicine, makes no attempt to socially distance from the sick, and even goes so far as to make fun of those who do, simply to assert its independence… that is, freedom.

Sound familiar…?  ;-)

According to Luther,

“This is not trusting God but tempting him. God has created medicines and provided us with intelligence to guard and take good care of the body so that we can live in good health… If one makes no use of intelligence or medicine when he could do so without detriment to his neighbor, such a person injures his body and must beware lest he become a suicide in God’s eyes. By the same reasoning a person might forego eating and drinking, clothing and shelter, and boldly proclaim his faith that if God wanted to preserve him from starvation and cold, he could do so without food and clothing. Actually that would be suicide.

It is even more shameful for a person to pay no heed to his own body and to fail to protect it against the plague the best he is able, and then to infect and poison others who might have remained alive if he had taken care of his body as he should have. He is thus responsible before God for his neighbor’s death and is a murderer many times over. Indeed, such people behave as though a house were burning in the city and nobody were trying to put the fire out. Instead they give leeway to the flames so that the whole city is consumed, saying that if God so willed, he could save the city without water to quench the fire…”

True disciples are rational (logical, intelligent). They embrace science, medicine, and socially responsible behavior—not out of license masquerading as “freedom,” but because they are responsible to God for their own health, and… [wait for it] … their neighbor’s. To do otherwise—to reject their reasonable service, which is holy, acceptable to God—is to tempt Him rather than trust Him, and in so doing, become a murderer plain and simple.

In summary, he tells us,

“No, my dear friends, that is no good. Use medicine; take potions which can help you; fumigate house, yard, and street; shun persons and places wherever your neighbor does not need your presence or has recovered, and act like a man who wants to help put out the burning city. What else is the epidemic but a fire which instead of consuming wood and straw devours life and body? You ought to think this way: Very well, by God’s decree the enemy has sent us poison and deadly offal. Therefore I shall ask God mercifully to protect us. Then I shall fumigate, help purify the air, administer medicine, and take it. I shall avoid places and persons where my presence is not needed in order not to become contaminated and thus perchance infect and pollute others, and so cause their death as a result of my negligence. If God should wish to take me, he will surely find me and I have done what he has expected of me and so I am not responsible for either my own death or the death of others. If my neighbor needs me, however, I shall not avoid place or person but will go freely, as stated above. See, this is such a God-fearing faith because it is neither brash nor foolhardy and does not tempt God.”

Nor is this restricted to personal faith only. It is a calling to the church and community as well,

“’Whoever loves danger,’ says the wise man, ‘will perish by it’ (Ecclus. 3:26). If the people in a city were to show themselves bold in their faith when a neighbor’s need so demands, and cautious when no emergency exists, and if everyone would help ward off contagion as best he can, then the death toll would indeed be moderate. But if some are too panicky and desert their neighbors in their plight, and if some are so foolish as not to take precautions but aggravate the contagion, then the devil has a heyday and many will die. On both counts this is a grievous offense to God and to man…”

To these ends, Luther’s exhortation to “make use of medicine and intelligence” is particularly timely for us. When diseases broke out in his world, one had only two options—do your best to avoid them; and pray for a healthy recovery if you don’t succeed. We, on the other hand, have been blessed with five centuries of advances in virology, immunology, and medicine his world didn’t have. And of all the blessings at our fingertips in the age of COVID-19, one stands out more than any other—the one that allows us to arm ourselves against it, and possibly even eradicate it… vaccines. Unfortunately, many people still aren’t getting them, which is keeping widespread herd immunity out of reach. In the United States in particular, many are flat-out refusing vaccination for ideological reasons, not the least of which is a general hostility toward science and public health measures that from all appearances, no amount of evidence or logic will ever be able to penetrate. Many others, however, are hesitant due to concerns about how safe and effective COVID vaccines are (especially considering public health recommendations to continue masking and social distancing even after vaccination) but can otherwise be reasoned with if these concerns are addressed. They can be.

COVID vaccines are effective

As of this writing, three COVID-19 vaccines are in general use in the United States: The messenger RNA-based (mRNA) vaccines manufactured by Pfizer and Moderna, and the Johnson & Johnson adenovirus-based “one-shot” vaccine. All three have been thoroughly tested and approved by the FDA (Tanne, 2020; Oliver, 2020). The AstraZeneca adenovirus-based vaccine has also been approved for general use in Europe (EMA, 2021). Demonstrated efficacies of mRNA-based vaccines against infection or symptoms requiring hospitalization from the original wild strains of SARS-COV-2 are 95-97% for the Pfizer–BioNTech BNT162b2, and 92-95% for Moderna mRNA-1273. Corresponding figures for the Johnson & Johnson [J&J] Ad26.COV2.S and AstraZeneca–Oxford ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccines are around 67-72% (Haas et. al., 2021; Tenforde et. al., 2021; Callaway, 2021; Noor, 2021; Polack et. al., 2020; Mahase, 2020; Olliaro et. al., 2021; Mallapaty & Callaway, 2021).

As of Sept. 2021, these figures are still holding up well, even against recent variants such as B.1.617.2, or Delta. Per multiple studies in Europe and North America, effectiveness of the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine against the more robust and transmissible Delta variant ranges from 79% to 88% for infection and symptomatic illness, and 89% to 100% (!) for hospitalization (Tregoning et. al., 2021; Lopez Bernal et. al., 2021; Baraniuk, 2021; CDC, 2021).

For all vaccines collectively, one recent study in New York found overall age-adjusted effectiveness against new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations to be 75% and 89.5% to 95.1% respectively (Rosenberg et. al., 2021). A similar recent study in England found 50-60% effectiveness against infection by Delta (symptomatic or otherwise), including the less effective one-shot ones such as J&J (Smout, 2021). Even a single immunization has been shown to boost neutralizing titers against all variants and SARS-CoV-1 by up to 1000-fold (Stamatatos et. al., 2021), and one study of new COVID-19 cases in Kentucky during May and June of 2021 found that those who were vaccinated were 2.34 times less likely to be infected than those who had previously had COVID-19 and survived but weren’t vaccinated (Cavanaugh et. al., 2021). One recent study in Israel did find an effectiveness of only 64% for Pfizer–BioNTech BNT162b2 against infection and symptomatic illness (Hass et. al., 2021). However, it was based on incidence rates in subjects who were considered fully vaccinated one week after receiving their second dose, whereas per U.S. CDC guidelines, one isn’t considered fully vaccinated until two weeks after their second dose (CDC, 2021b).

If one does contract COVID-19 after vaccination, severe symptoms, hospitalizations, and deaths among breakout cases are almost an order of magnitude lower than those among the unvaccinated. Even in the case of the more vaccine-resistant Delta variant, the Pfizer–BioNTech BNT162b2 and Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccines reduce risk of hospitalization after four months by 93% and 91% respectively, and by 92% and 77% after six months (Scobie et. al., 2021; Self et. al., 2021).

But of course, if in doubt one could simply check the trended data on new US cases and deaths vs. vaccination rates since mass distribution of these vaccines began in earnest last January (JHUM, 2021). The dramatic declines in COVID-19 with rising national vaccination levels reflected in these datasets are self-evident. The spike in new cases after July 11, 2021 was almost entirely due to the Delta variant spreading among the unvaccinated, who as of July 30, 2021 comprised 96-99.8% of all cases (Kates et. al., 2021). And among the rising percentages of breakthrough cases (thanks to the unvaccinated Petrie dish), severe illness, hospitalizations and deaths are clearly a fraction of those for the unvaccinated (CDC, 2021c; Evans & Wernau, 2021).

By the numbers and the extensiveness with which they’ve been tested, the effectiveness of these vaccines in preventing infection, hospitalization, or death from COVID-19 is beyond reasonable dispute. But that said, it’s important to be clear about what we mean by effectiveness and efficacy (there’s a difference). When we say, for instance, that the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccine has an efficacy of 88% against infection, we mean that in controlled studies where a random sample of subjects received the Pfizer vaccine and an identical (or as similar as possible) control group of subjects received a placebo, 88% fewer subjects in the vaccinated group contracted COVID-19 during the trial period than the unvaccinated group–that is, if 100 COVID-19 cases turned up in the unvaccinated group, twelve did in the vaccinated group, and likewise for efficacies against hospitalization and death. On the other hand, vaccine effectiveness generalizes these comparisons to wider vaccine use in the general public. Since vaccine distribution and use may differ regionally and/or demographically from controlled laboratory studies, vaccine effectiveness may differ somewhat from efficacy.

In both cases, what we are NOT saying is that an efficacy/effectiveness of 88% against infection means that vaccines only work for 88 out of 100 people, nor that they will only work 88% of the time for you. Likewise, 93% efficacy/effectiveness against hospitalization does NOT mean that seven out of every 100 breakout cases will be hospitalized, and the rest will be asymptomatic. It isn’t hand grenades. :-)

It simply means that there will be 88% fewer infections and 93% fewer hospitalizations in a vaccinated population than an unvaccinated one. But everyone who is vaccinated still has some level of protection from vaccines that they wouldn’t otherwise have. [The WHO Vaccine efficacy, effectiveness and protection page has a very readable and informative overview of all this.]

All other factors held constant the bottom line is that vaccination protects everyone and does so in at least three ways.

First, while it is true that in some cases the individual protection offered by vaccines may not be enough to prevent one from coming down with the disease or being hospitalized, they still reduce everyone’s risk for infection, and nearly all of those who do come down with a breakout case anyway will have less severe symptoms than they otherwise would have. How well vaccination protects you personally will depend on a wide range of factors including your age, your overall immune function, any comorbidities you may have, how much exposure you get from daily life (home, workplace, etc.), and more. But regardless, you will be more protected with vaccination than without it. And unless you have known life-threatening vaccine allergies or related immune function risks, getting vaccinated poses no risk compared to remaining unvaccinated since you would have to be infected and get sick to generate an immune response anyway, so there’s no reason not to get one.

Second, if 88 out of 100 people who are vaccinated don’t contract COVID-19 when exposed to it, that means there are 88 fewer people spreading the disease before they develop symptoms, which in turn reduces everyone’s risk of exposure to it in the first place (more on this shortly). This is a key point, especially for those who intend to love their neighbor as themselves…

Choosing to be vaccinated doesn’t just protect you from infection, it protects your loved ones, your friends, and your community.

Finally, and most alarmingly, the vast majority of people filling hospital beds nationwide and around the world are unvaccinated COVID-19 patients, and the resulting burden is taxing healthcare workers and resources to the breaking point—so much so that in many regions, hospitals are literally having to resort to “death panels” to decide who gets care based on their likelihood of survival (Knowles, 2021; Hiltzik, 2021; Westneat, 2021). In other words, we have now reached a point in this pandemic where people are literally dying from preventable conditions because there are no hospital beds for them.

A month ago, my 89-yr-old father fell and broke his knee. He was left on a gurney in a hallway at Deaconess Hospital in Spokane, Washington for eight hours because there wasn’t a single bed available for him—all but a handful were being used by unvaccinated COVID-19 patients from Idaho who were seeking care in Washington because of the very Idaho hospital death panels discussed in the last two sources cited above. If he’d been in a car accident, needed an emergency appendectomy, or had a heart attack, he’d be dead… for literally no reason other than that all the beds in the nearest hospital were taken up by unvaccinated COVID-19 patients.

Choosing to be vaccinated doesn’t just protect you from hospitalization and death, it protects doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers struggling to save lives, and saves everyone from needless crippling or death due to lack of available care.

COVID vaccines are safe

As of this writing, nearly 6.3 billion COVID-19 vaccinations have been administered worldwide. More than 393 million have been administered in the United States, and 63% of the U.S. population have had at least one shot (Ritchie et. al., 2021; JHUM, 2021). Anaphylaxis adverse reaction rates have run around 0.0011% for Pfizer and 0.00025% for Moderna or roughly two to eleven adverse events per million vaccinations administered (Rutkowski et. al., 2021; Shimabukuro et. al., 2021; Banerji et. al., 2021). Corresponding figures for adenovirus vaccines such as Johnson & Johnson [J&J] Ad26.COV2.S and AstraZeneca–Oxford ChAdOx1 are around 0.0003% for blood clotting (Ledford, 2021; CDC, 2021d). Overall, as of Aug. 16, 2021, after administration of more than 357 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines, a grand total of 6,789 deaths had been reported, or 0.0019% of doses administered (CDC, 2021d), and few of these deaths have even been specifically tied to the vaccines themselves rather than extraneous factors or even coincidence. For these and many other reasons, as of Aug. 23, 2021, the Pfizer–BioNTech BNT162b2 has full rather than emergency FDA approval (USFDA, 2021).

For comparison, your odds of being struck by lightning once in an 80-year lifetime (believe it or not, the National Weather Service maintains stats on this!) are one in 15,300, or 0.0065%–more than three times the odds of a severe adverse reaction (SAR) from any COVID-19 vaccine (NWS, 2021). Apart from valid doctor-certified medical exemptions, it isn’t reasonable to refuse vaccination based on risk this low.

In conclusion, it should be also noted that there is a flood of disinformation regarding vaccine safety and effectiveness circulating on social media and in online activist and news/op-ed forums. A detailed examination of the numerous claims and allegations being made is beyond our scope today but suffice to say that virtually none of it has any basis whatsoever in fact and it continues to spread only because it receives uncritical reception in these forums outside of the scientific peer-review process.1 By the reliable data and numbers, the safety of these vaccines is also beyond reasonable dispute.

Do I still need to mask up and socially distance after vaccination?

In a word, yes… but only as the circumstances of your daily activities and regional safety guidelines dictate. Here are the things that need to be kept in mind…

As of this writing, 99% of all new COVID-19 cases in the US are the Delta variant (CDC, 2021e). As already noted, the existing Pfizer vaccine has been shown to be 79-88% effective against Delta for infection. That’s tantamount to saying that it’s 12-21% ineffective, meaning that even if you’re vaccinated you still have roughly one chance in six of coming down with COVID-19 if exposed to it, perhaps asymptomatically.

What happens if you do…? It’s well known that breakout cases among the vaccinated can still carry viral load significant enough to be contagious even if they don’t become symptomatic, and in some cases, they may even carry as much as those who aren’t vaccinated (CDC, 2021). Either way, if you do, how many susceptible people you pass it to while contagious will depend on a wide range of factors—your age and immune function, demographics of your daily encounters, behavior (including masking and social distancing), etc. Taking all these factors into account, given the average person infected with a disease, the expectation value for how many people he/she will spread it to in an unvaccinated environment while contagious is given by its base reproductive factor, or \(R_{0}\).

As of this writing, Delta has an estimated \(R_{0}\) of between 5 and 9.5, as opposed to that of chickenpox, which has an \(R_{0}\) of 8.5 (CDC, 2021; UNSW, 2021; Liu & Rocklöv, 2021; Georgiou, 2021). As such, even if you are vaccinated, if you come down with a breakout case of Delta COVID-19 in an unvaccinated setting and don’t quarantine or change your behavior, you will likely spread the disease to at least some people before recovering or dying. In most cases being vaccinated will reduce the likelihood that you will spread it, but it’s possible that you could spread it to as many as five to nine others. Each of them will then do likewise, and so on—more so among the unvaccinated. As successive generations of infection proceed through a given population, the number of susceptible hosts will be eroded by acquired immunity or death, and continued infection rates will to first order yield an effective reproductive factor, \(R_{eff}\), given by,

\(R_{eff} = R_{0}\left ( 1 – p_{1} \right ) \)

where \(p_{1}\) is the percentage of a population that has acquired immunity either through infection or… vaccination. As can be seen, the key to reducing \(R_{eff}\) is to increase \(p_{1}\)… And vaccination makes this possible at a much faster rate with orders of magnitude fewer casualties.

For Delta (or any other SARS-COV-2 variant) to be contained regionally or globally, \(R_{eff}\) must remain less than 1.0 long enough for the virus to die out. So, given a median \(R_{0}\) of 7.3 for the estimated range above, this means that \(p_{1}\) must be greater than 0.86. As of Oct. 3, 2021, total cumulative U.S. COVID-19 cases were at 43.7 million and deaths at 701,000, or around 13.1% of its population that has acquired immunity, and concurrently, 54.9% of its population is fully vaccinated (JHUM, 2021; CDC, 2021). Conservatively assuming negligible breakout case overlap, and naively presuming a normalized overall vaccine effectiveness of 88% (per the upper range of Pfizer–BioNTech Delta variant effectiveness cited above), that works out to at most, a \(p_{1}\) of 0.61—far short of the target needed for containment. And none of this accounts for the erosion of vaccine effectiveness by the evolution of increasingly vaccine-resistant strains, which once they break out of vaccinated hosts, spread most virulently among the unvaccinated.

What can we do? By my lights, there are three responsible options:

Option #1:  If you haven’t done so already, consider getting vaccinated.

This is by far, the best protection you can offer yourself and others against infection and/or hospitalization from all extant strains of SARS-COV-2. If you have a history of allergies and/or reactions to vaccines and are worried about whether they’re safe for you, consult your primary care doctor. You might also want to spend some time at the CDC’s COVID-19 Vaccine Information portal for more information. Bear in mind that these vaccines are free. You don’t need health insurance to get them and they’re available at most pharmacies as well as clinics, including grocery store pharmacies (My wife and I got both our Pfizer shots at our neighborhood Safeway). The pharmacists there will gather the needed information regarding your risks, and consult your primary care doctor as well if need be. For safety reasons, you will be asked to remain in the waiting area for 10-30 minutes after receiving your shot. And in the extremely unlikely case that you do have a SAR (Severe Adverse Reaction) to vaccination, they will have EpiPen’s on hand that will immediately rectify all but the tiniest handful of them.

Again, this cannot be emphasized enough—There is an obscene amount of pseudoscience, conspiracy theories, and other disinformation being circulated on social media by anti-vax activists. 1 To repeat a viral mantra in these communities… Under no circumstances whatsoever should you “do your own research” on YouTube, Facebook, or any agenda-driven online forums outside of the scientific peer-review process. Your primary care doctor has your personal medical history, and properly trained pharmacists who work with COVID-19 vaccines and understand what risks they have will be able to contact him/her if there are any concerns. They and they alone can speak to whether they’re safe for you.

Option #2:  Mask and socially distance when prudent, especially indoors.

If COVID-19 vaccines aren’t a safe and viable option for you, you can still protect yourself and others by socially distancing and wearing a mask. SARS-COV-2 is spread primarily by expectorated droplets and aerosols (this is where the six-foot rule comes from) and masking dramatically decreases the spread of these droplets. Outdoors, breezes and atmospheric dispersion make this less of a concern. But indoors it’s more important, especially in smaller spaces.

The best protection is provided by medical-grade N95 masks like those manufactured by 3M’s Particulate Respirator 8211. These are the only masks that will individually block SARS-COV-2 viral transmission in both directions, protecting you as well as others. Their only downsides are limited availability, and for some people, discomfort (they tend to produce skin irritation and/or itching).

The next best thing is a high-quality 3-ply cloth mask with microfilters such as those made by Airband. Even better is double-masking—wearing a surgical mask under a 3-ply cloth one. Recent research has shown that properly done, this can reduce one’s risk of transmission and infection by 90% or more, rivaling the efficacy of mRNA vaccines (Brooks et. al., 2021). Proper use of masks is as important as mask selection, so it’s a good idea to review the CDC’s Guidelines for improving mask protection.

It also should be pointed out that agenda-driven activists on social media and in online “news” and propaganda forums are spreading even more pseudoscience and disinformation about masks and social distancing than vaccines, and virtually none of it has any basis whatsoever in fact either. 2 As before under no circumstances whatsoever should anyone be “doing their own research” in such forums outside of the scientific peer-review process.

Option #3:  Avoid crowds and prolonged indoor gatherings.

As already noted, expectorated droplets are the primary vector of transmission for SARS-COV-2. However, normal breathing does release a viral load that only a medical-grade N95 mask will stop. In outdoor or large, well-ventilated spaces this viral load is too small to make a difference. But in tightly crowded conditions and gathering in small, enclosed spaces it can build up to dangerous levels. If you don’t have access to medical-grade N95 masks, avoid crowded gatherings in poorly ventilated spaces—yes, unfortunately, that does include churches where proper circulation and social distancing measures aren’t being implemented.

Finally, bear in mind that as we have seen, even if you are vaccinated, adopting options #2 and #3 as well will still give you protection from a breakout infection, and help protect others if you do come down with one.

Whatever path we choose, let us examine our own hearts and remember that it’s not just we ourselves that we’re protecting, but our neighbors, our loved ones, and our communities. As the poet John Donne said,

“No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent, a part of the main; if a clod be washed away by the sea, Europe is the less, as well as if a promontory were, as well as any manner of thy friends or of thine own were; any man’s death diminishes me, because I am involved in mankind. And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.”

As we face our own plague—As millions of our fellow citizens suffer under the iron fist of this cruel disease, hundreds of thousands die slow, horrible, intubated deaths, and doctors and nurses put in 70/80-hour weeks at the edge of their human reserves to save lives—Luther reminds us that we are all in this together, and we’ve been called to go forth into that Valley of the Shadow of Death hand-in-hand

Not in brashness or foolhardiness… Not in willful rejection of science and medicine… Not in service to Self and license masquerading as “freedom…”

But as living sacrifices, holy, acceptable to God, in reasonable service to each other knowing that whatever may befall us, God is by our side completing the work he began in us. “Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me” (Matt. 25:39-40).

Or in the words of Paul,

“All things are lawful, but not all things are profitable. All things are lawful, but not all things edify. Let no one seek his own good, but that of his neighbor” (I Cor. 10:23-24).

“Do nothing from selfishness or empty conceit, but with humility of mind regard one another as more important than yourselves; do not merely look out for your own personal interests, but also for the interests of others. Have this attitude in yourselves which was also in Christ Jesus, who, although He existed in the form of God, did not regard equality with God a thing to be grasped, but emptied Himself, taking the form of a bond-servant, and being made in the likeness of men. Being found in appearance as a man, He humbled Himself by becoming obedient to the point of death, even death on a cross. For this reason, also, God highly exalted Him and bestowed on Him the name which is above every name, so that at the name of Jesus every knee will bow, of those who are in heaven and on earth and under the earth, and that every tongue will confess that Jesus Christ is Lord to the glory of God the Father” (Phil. 2:3-11).

Do nothing from selfishness or conceit… Regard others as more valuable than yourself, and look to their interests as well as your own…

Have this attitude (this mindset, this worldview, these values… not these parroted dog-whistles or party-line narratives) in you which was also in Christ Jesus…

Who although He was God Incarnate, with all the power, authority, and glory thereof, did not consider that august status a thing to be grasped (clung to, defended with bared teeth and narcissistic injury), but emptied Himself, taking on the role of a servant

And being found in mortal human form, was obedient to the point of death—even death on a cross, which in New Testament times was a death of disgrace reserved only for the lowest of despised criminals…

This is the kind of discipleship we’ve been called to… And it’s a far cry from rugged individualism and idolatrous nationalism whitewashed with joyful hymns and inspirational bumper stickers.

Say what you will about his quaint puritanical language, his belief that “evil spirits” cause plagues, and other bucolic naivetes. But like us, Luther was a man of the age he lived in. His words were penned long before he or any of his contemporaries had access to modern epidemiology, immunology, or even knowledge of germs. To dismiss him for speaking from, and to the age he lived in would be at best anachronistic, and at worst, sanctimonious. Archaic or not, in this age of COVID-19, the example he left with us is as self-evident as it is timeless, and those of us who call ourselves Christians would do well to heed it—especially those who seem to think that trusting God means tempting Him by rejecting science and medicine and behaving recklessly in the name of “freedom,” and then expecting Him to clean up their messes without holding them accountable as His sons and daughters.

We can embrace a faith like his that “makes use of intelligence and medicine” and “serves the sick for the sake of God’s gracious promise.” We can offer ourselves as living sacrifices, holy, acceptable to God in reasonable service to our fellow human beings and put an end to this pandemic. We can reach for the best that is in us, the best that is in our souls…

Or we can set aside loving our neighbors as ourselves (Mark 12:31) and tempt God with a “faith” based on denial, recklessness, and idolatrous worldly narratives and spread this disease throughout the world, filling hospitals and graves in our wake.

In short, we can be salt and light to a world in need… or in Luther’s words, murderers.

The choice is ours. But make no mistake… We’re kidding ourselves if we think we can choose the latter and expect that outside of our own echo chambers, the world isn’t going to notice the difference and judge our witness accordingly.

Footnotes

1)      A deeper examination of some of the most widespread anti-vax myths currently in circulation can be found at two public Facebook posts of my own titled Covid-19 Vaccine Whack-A-Mole and Covid-19 Vaccine Whack-A-Mole – Part 2.

2)      Likewise, a deeper examination of the most widespread anti-mask myths currently in circulation can be found at a public Facebook post of my own titled Anti-Mask Whack-A-Mole.

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Polack, F.P., Thomas, S.J., Kitchin, N., Absalon, J., Gurtman, A., Lockhart, S., Perez, J.L., Pérez Marc, G., Moreira, E.D., Zerbini, C. and Bailey, R. 2020. Safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 mRNA Covid-19 vaccine. New England Journal of Medicine, 383(27), pp.2603-2615. Online at https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577. Accessed Oct. 3, 2021.

Ritchie, H., Ortiz-Ospina, E., Beltekian, D., Mathieu, E., Hasell, J., Macdonald, B., Giattino, C., Appel, C., Rodés-Guirao, L., and M. Roser. 2021. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations. Our World In Data, May 6, 2021. Online at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations. Accessed Oct. 3, 2021.

Rosenberg ES, Holtgrave DR, Dorabawila V, et al. New COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations Among Adults, by Vaccination Status — New York, May 3–July 25, 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021;70:1306–1311. Online at http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7037a7. Accessed Oct. 3, 2021.

Rutkowski, K., Mirakian, R., Till, S., Rutkowski, R. and Wagner, A. 2021. Adverse reactions to COVID‐19 vaccines: a practical approach. Clinical & Experimental Allergy. Online at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cea.13880. Accessed Oct. 3, 2021.

Schiferl, E., 1983. Iconography of Plague Saints in Fifteenth-century Italian Painting. Fifteenth Century Studies, 6, p.205. Online at https://www.proquest.com/openview/b63edc66b065c7024f2bf4ba28c1a661/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=1818258. Accessed Oct. 3, 2021.

Scobie HM, Johnson AG, Suthar AB, et al. Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Status — 13 U.S. Jurisdictions, April 4–July 17, 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021;70:1284–1290. Sept. 17, 2021. Online at https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm?s_cid=mm7037e1_w. Accessed Oct. 3, 2021.

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Shimabukuro, T.T., Cole, M. and Su, J.R., 2021. Reports of anaphylaxis after receipt of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in the US—December 14, 2020-January 18, 2021. Jama, 325(11), pp.1101-1102. Online at https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2776557. Accessed Oct. 3, 2021.

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Creator, Redeemer, and Sanctifier

Our Father, the Creator

In the beginning God created the heavens and the earth.  (Genesis 1:1)

For us there is but one God, the Father, from whom all things came and for whom we live… (1 Cor 8:6)

Jesus Christ, the Creator

In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God.  He was with God in the beginning.  Through him all things were made; without him nothing was made that has been made.  In him was life, and that life was the light of all mankind.  (John 1:1-3)

…and there is but one Lord, Jesus Christ, through whom all things came and through whom we live.  (1 Cor 8:6)

Holy Spirit, the Creator

Now the earth was formless and empty, darkness was over the surface of the deep, and the Spirit of God was hovering over the waters.  And God said, “Let there be light,” and there was light...  (Genesis 1:2-3)

When you send forth your Spirit, they are created;
And you renew the face of the earth.  (Psalm 104:30)

                                                                                                                                                                     

Our Father, the Redeemer

But it was because the LORD loved you and kept the oath he swore to your ancestors that he brought you out with a mighty hand and redeemed you from the land of slavery, from the power of Pharaoh king of Egypt.  (Deuteronomy 7:8)

But you are our Father, though Abraham does not know us or Israel acknowledge us; you, LORD, are our Father, our Redeemer from of old is your name.  (Isaiah 63:16)

Jesus Christ, the Redeemer

For you know that it was not with perishable things such as silver or gold that you were redeemed from the empty way of life handed down to you from your ancestors, but with the precious blood of Christ, a lamb without blemish or defect.
(1 Peter 1:18-19)

Christ has redeemed us from the curse of the law, having become a curse for us (for it is written, “Cursed is everyone who hangs on a tree”).
(Gal 3:13)

Holy Spirit, the Redeemer

And not only the creation, but we ourselves, who have the firstfruits of the Spirit, groan inwardly as we wait eagerly for adoption as sons, the redemption of our bodies.  (Rom 8:23)

And grieve not the Holy Spirit of God, whereby ye are sealed unto the day of redemption(Ephesians 4:30)

                                                                                                                                                                     

Our Father, the Sanctifier

Now may the God of peace Himself sanctify you completely…
(1 Thess 5:23)

Holy Father, protect them by the power of your name, the name you gave me, so that they may be one as we are one…. Sanctify them by the truth; your word is truth.”
(John 17:11,17)

Jesus Christ, the Sanctifier

Husbands, love your wives, even as Christ also loved the church, and gave himself for it; that he might sanctify and cleanse it with the washing of water by the word, that he might present it to himself a glorious church, not having spot, or wrinkle, or any such thing; but that it should be holy and without blemish.
(Ephesians 5:25-27)

for both he who is sanctifying and those sanctified are all of one [family], for which cause he [i.e. Jesus, the only person of the Trinity who became a human] is not ashamed to call them brethren (Hebrews 2:11)

Holy Spirit, the Sanctifier

He gave me the priestly duty of proclaiming the gospel of God, so that the Gentiles might become an offering acceptable to God, sanctified by the Holy Spirit. (Rom 15:16)

But you were washed, you were sanctified, you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ and by the Spirit of our God.  (1 Cor 6:11)

Pandemic without Panic (a meditation for Holy Tuesday)

A couple of readers have asked for my take on the Pandemic.

1. First of all, practical matters: If you haven’t already been told a hundred times already, you should try to avoid going to places with people in them, besides members of your own household (assuming none of them are sick yet!).  This is our way of protecting, not only ourselves, but elderly and sick people.

Some have questioned whether shutting down the economy will lead to even worse consequences than the disease itself.  Certainly, this is going to lead to suffering for many poor people and small business owners and workers.  But while nobody knows all of the effects of such decisions, in the short run suspending the inessential parts of the economy probably actually saves lives on net (even before taking into account stopping the disease!), what with less driving cars, and less pollution.

Maybe we can take this opportunity to remind ourselves that what we call the “economy” often reflects priorities that are not completely healthy and beneficial?  Just as an individual can benefit from a period of fasting from inessential luxuries, to learn what is more important, a whole society can benefit from a fast as well.

These days there are services in most places to order groceries online and have them delivered to your door.  If you can still find time slots available, that is much safer than going to the grocery store yourself.  (There is some chance of getting exposed to the virus from touching surfaces, e.g. food packaging, but people breathing droplets is thought to be the main way it spreads.  If you are concerned about viruses on surfaces you can wash the outer packaging in soapy water, as we have been doing.)

If you have frozen or imperishable food stored up, you can also eat that.

You can also order delivery from restaurants, if needed.  This is less ideal, but at least this way at most 1 person from outside breathes on you per meal.

If none of those strategies works for you, then you might still have to go to the store, but please do so as infrequently as you can (which means you should try to make each trip count, by buying enough food for say 2 weeks if possible).  Wear a mask if you can, or at least cloth over your face.

If you are in a vulnerable demographic, maybe you could get somebody else to go to the store for you?  If you are healthy, perhaps you could provide this service for someone who is not?

If you are living in a house with a sick person, of course make sure their needs are met, but do your best to try to minimize your exposure to their germs.  Infection is not just a yes/no thing—it turns out that the quantities of virus you are exposed to matter.  If you are exposed to only a small number, it takes the viruses longer to reproduce to dangerous numbers, giving your immune system more time to crack their code and build up antibodies.

2.  But what about the theological significance?  In each generation, there is a temptation for Christians to read too much into the disasters of that time as if they were some unique sign, rather than the way life is in general.

Is the Pandemic a sign of the End Times?  Should we expect Jesus to be coming back any moment now?  Well, it seems like the Black Death (which killed a lot more people) would have been an even stronger sign, and we know that Jesus didn’t come back in the 1300’s.  Even the Spanish Flu probably killed more people per capita than Covid-19 will.

Let’s see what Jesus says, in the beginning of his discourse to his disciples about the End Times, which—going by the chronology of Holy Week in the Gospel of Mark—he probably preached on the Tuesday before he was crucified (so this blog post is 1 day late, sorry!).

From Matthew 24 [with the two words in brackets taken from the parallel passage in Luke 21]

While He was sitting on the Mount of Olives, the disciples approached Him privately and said, “Tell us, when will these things happen? And what is the sign of Your coming and of the end of the age?”

Then Jesus replied to them: “Watch out that no one deceives you.  For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Messiah,’ and they will deceive many: You are going to hear of wars and rumors of wars.  See that you are not alarmed, because these things must take place, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise up against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.  There will be famines and earthquakes [and plagues] in various places.   All these events are the beginning of birth pains.  Then they will hand you over for persecution, and they will kill you.  You will be hated by all nations because of My name.”

Note the words I have highlighted here.  The words in red involve various types of human conflicts (often leading to bloodshed), the words in blue involve natural disasters (including plagues like Covid-19), and the words in black indicate what Jesus says about both of these categories: Don’t panic, this is what happens in each generation, it is not any kind of indicator that you live in the last generation.  It is not the end, it is just the beginning.

Jesus does, however, refer to these signs (which manifest to different degrees in every generation of human history), as the “birth pains”, so he doesn’t entirely reject the idea of looking at them as some sort of “sign”.

Actually, Covid-19 is a sign of the End Times, but only in a certain sense.  It is not the sort of sign that silly prognosticators are looking for, who—in defiance of Jesus’ statement that not even angels, or the Son with respect to his human knows the day or hour, but only the Father—try to predict the time of the End.  Rather, it is a sign for the wise, for those who know how to interpret events.

Let’s compare it to tooth decay.  When I was 28, I had to get my wisdom teeth removed; they had actually grown in perfectly fine, but they were decaying since I hadn’t kept them as clean as I should have.  The dentist said they’d need to be removed or else crowned, and even that would only hold for another decade or so.  So I had them taken out—but that’s another story.

Covid-19 is a sign of the mortality of the human existence as a whole, in exactly the same way that tooth decay is a sign of your own mortality.  A wise man will learn from such experiences the frailty of his mortal condition, and will recognize from it the inevitability of his eventual physical demise.  But, that does not mean that you’ll be hit by a bus the moment you walk out of the doctor’s office on painkiller, nor does it mean that you can use cavities as a sort of guidepost to predict the year and manner of your death.  True, an untreated tooth abscess might well be the thing that kills you, but most likely you’ll be done in by something completely different.

3. As I said, many Christians have a temptation to interpret recent historical events as if they were a lucid story where we can read off the plot and say what the moral is.  (Scholars sometimes call this sort of tendency, Historicism.)  We can be sure that historical events fulfill God’s will, but it is hubris to think, in the absence of specific revelation about the matter, that we can give a detailed explanation of how or why they do so.

Let us turn to the favorite book of the prognosticators: the Book of Revelation.  Near the beginning of the book, John has a vision of God in heaven, and in that vision he sees a strange sight:

Then I saw in the right hand of him who sat on the throne a scroll with writing on both sides and sealed with seven seals.  And I saw a mighty angel proclaiming in a loud voice, “Who is worthy to break the seals and open the scroll?”  But no one in heaven or on earth or under the earth could open the scroll or even look inside itI wept and wept because no one was found who was worthy to open the scroll or look inside.  (Rev. 5:1-4)

The scroll that is full of writing represents the hidden meaning of God’s creation.  If there is a Creator, and if he created human beings for a purpose, then this hidden significance has to exist!  But it turns out that nobody is worthy—smart enough or good enough or holy enough—to penetrate the depths of this mystery.

As Ecclesiastes says: “He has made everything beautiful in its time. He has also set eternity in the human heart; yet no one can fathom what God has done from beginning to end.”  This mystery, represented here by the “seven seals”, is a problem for those who try to defend God by constructing plausible theodicies.

True, any idiot can see that it is sometimes true that suffering builds character, that freedom requires the possibility of bad choices, and that great good can sometimes come out of terrible evil.  And if there is an afterlife, we cannot expect that our final fulfillment will come in this life, but rather we are being prepared for another (and unimaginable) state of existence.

But for precisely this reason, those who seek to come up with facile philosophical explanations of exactly why God allowed this war or that disease, in a way that is supposed to be more satisfying then repeating such obvious platitudes, are fooling themselves.  As Housman wrote:

“Malt does more than Milton can
To justify God’s ways to man.”

Does that mean that there is no way to understand the purpose of Creation?  Not quite, since there is one who knows:

Then one of the elders said to me, “Do not weep! See, the Lion of the tribe of Judah, the Root of David, has triumphed. He is able to open the scroll and its seven seals.”

Then I saw a Lamb, looking as if it had been slain, standing at the center of the throne, encircled by the four living creatures and the elders.  The Lamb had seven horns and seven eyes, which are the seven spirits of God sent out into all the earth.  He went and took the scroll from the right hand of him who sat on the throne.  And when he had taken it, the four living creatures and the twenty-four elders fell down before the Lamb.  Each one had a harp and they were holding golden bowls full of incense, which are the prayers of God’s people.    And they sang a new song, saying:

“You are worthy to take the scroll and to open its seals,
because you were slain,
and with your blood you purchased for God
persons from every tribe and language and people and nation.
You have made them to be a kingdom and priests to serve our God,
and they will reign on the earth.” (v. 5:5-10)

The slain Lamb, of course, represents Jesus, and his sacrifice on the Cross.  At the Cross, and only at the Cross, God’s hidden purpose for human suffering and agony become apparent.  Hence, only the risen Jesus is fully worthy to interpret the meaning of human history, and in particular whatever suffering the sick may be experiencing right now.

To the extent that we can have a glimmer of this now, as a person other than the Savior, it can only be to the extent that we meditate on the Cruciform love of God that was revealed there, and let it permeate our thoughts and character.  This is nothing more nor less nor other than the call to fully become a saint.  To become a saint is to have a satisfactory resolution to the Problem of Evil, in a particular life.  But the gate is open for that person only.  The next person to come along will not be able to grasp the explanation, unless they too are on the road to holiness.

As the Lamb begins to open the Seals one by one, John sees the famous “Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse”—but originally the term “Apocalypse” just meant the four Horsemen that appear in the Apocalypse of John, i.e. the Book of Revelation.  (Although, they were first seen by the Prophet Zechariah.)    The woes they bring are the same as the ones that Jesus described at the start of the Olivet discourse, and which have characterized every era of human history: conquest, war, famine, and pestilence.

I watched as the Lamb opened the first of the seven seals. Then I heard one of the four living creatures say in a voice like thunder, “Come!”  I looked, and there before me was a white horse! Its rider held a bow, and he was given a crown, and he rode out as a conqueror bent on conquest.

In the 20th century alone, about 100-200 million people were killed as a more or less direct consequence of government policy (e.g. genocide and deliberate starvation), not counting military deaths.  (This is based on old notes for a Sunday school class; I’m not going to try to find all my sources again.)

When the Lamb opened the second seal, I heard the second living creature say, “Come!” Then another horse came out, a fiery red one. Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make people kill each other. To him was given a large sword.

About 40 million people were killed in battle in the 20th century.

When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand.  Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages,and six pounds of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!”

Famine was responsible for the deaths of about 70 million in the 20th century.

When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature say, “Come!”  I looked, and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him.  They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth.  (v. 6:1-7)

Death seems somewhat redundant with the effects of the previous Horsemen.  Indeed, Death seems to get pretty much everyone eventually.  Even if we only focus on the new element of infectious disease, this one is actually MUCH bigger than the other 3.  In the 20th century, around 200 million people were killed by smallpox alone, and that was just one of many deadly scourges.

Most of the deaths by plague in the 20th century came near the start.  As a result of vaccines and better medical care, death by infectious disease dropped in developed countries (e.g. the USA) to only about a 10% the rate it had before.  Even with the novel coronavirus running rampant, we live in very sheltered times compared to every other era in human history!

The 5th Seal is also something common through many eras:

When he opened the fifth seal, I saw under the altar the souls of those who had been slain because of the word of God and the testimony they had maintained.  They called out in a loud voice, “How long, Sovereign Lord, holy and true, until you judge the inhabitants of the earth and avenge our blood?” Then each of them was given a white robe, and they were told to wait a little longer, until the full number of their fellow servants, their brothers were killed just as they had been.

In the 20th century there were, depending on how you count, somewhere around 45 million Christian martyrs.

Only when we reach the 6th Seal to we seem to get imagery that corresponds to the actual End Times, and it seems to comes in a huge spectacle all at once:

I watched as he opened the sixth seal.  There was a great earthquake.  The sun turned black like sackcloth made of goat hair, the whole moon turned blood red, and the stars in the sky fell to earth, as figs drop from a fig tree when shaken by a strong wind.  The heavens receded like a scroll being rolled up, and every mountain and island was removed from its place.

Then the kings of the earth, the princes, the generals, the rich, the mighty, and everyone else, both slave and free, hid in caves and among the rocks of the mountains.  They called to the mountains and the rocks, “Fall on us and hide us from the face of him who sits on the throne and from the wrath of the Lamb!  For the great day of their wrath has come, and who can withstand it?”

I expect that this provides us with a picture of the Second Coming which is at least as literal as the Book’s depiction of the body of Jesus (a Lamb with 7 eyes and 7 horns).   Yes, Christ will return to Earth just as he has promised, but John’s vision was not given to him to satisfy all of our curiosity about exactly how it will happen.

In my opinion it is more profitable to meditate on the deep irony inherent in the strange and paradoxical phrase “Wrath of the Lamb”.  This is a rather astonishing juxtaposition.  A lamb is not an animal that most people would associate with apocalyptic rage and judgement.  What can this mean?

It means that when God arrives to forcibly overthrow all the powers of the world, he will do so with the same body that suffered on Earth as a meek, innocent victim of torture and execution.  A person who—although he was very far from being a physical or verbal doormat—told his disciples not to resist their persecutors, and who willingly forgave his tormenters.  That person, and nobody else, is going to finally end all violence and disease, and economic exploitation, and religious oppression.  Not by beating them in a fair fight on their own terms, but rather by the sheer power and glory and worthiness of his unveiled and crucified divinity.

This blog post will not attempt to interpret the strange Sabbath rest of the 7th Seal.  Nor will I attempt to give an interpretation of the Trumpets and Bowls which follow the Seals in the text (although this does not necessarily imply anything about their chronological order) except to note the obvious fact, that depending on how the future unfolds, the human race could easily face severe ecological devastation as a result of human sin and mismanagement of the Earth.

The main purpose of these visions and teachings is not to show us what we have to suffer—there has always been plenty of that on Earth, even without special Tribulations and Persecutions—but rather to show us who suffered along side us.

Those of us who persist in reading the Scriptures, or the events of our lives, with the goal of finding Jesus there, will not I think find them to be without meaning.

The Image of God

Imagine an art historian whose life work is to study Picasso paintings.  She analyses the minute flecks of paint on each work, to determine their composition.  She also goes to conferences where people divide the paintings into different eras, and tries to see if her results can be related to their discoveries.

However, she doesn’t believe Picasso actually existed.  Nor do most of her colleagues.  A few of them do, but it is considered somewhat gauche to mention it in talks or official publications.

It’s a bit like this whenever a scientist doesn’t believe in God.  The work may have technical expertise, even brilliance, but it misses the forest for the trees.  It is blind to the biggest, most important result of all.

I don’t mean to imply that Atheism is as implausible as Picasso-denial would be.  The philosophical arguments for the existence of God require careful contemplation, and some thoughtful individuals have resisted them as (in their opinion) fallacious.  Indeed, most scientists don’t give the question careful thought at all.  But as somebody who is convinced God exists, the final outcome still seems (regardless of how understandable it may be) a little bit comic or absurd.  You may not believe in God, but you carefully study his laws and decrees.  Look up from your work, contemplate the ocean or hills, and ask your heart where all this beauty came from!

There is yet another respect in which God haunts Science, as its inspiration and origin.  We can also look at the scientist as a human being.  Without the human mind, Nature would of course still exist, but Science (which is just the careful study of Nature by beings with minds) would not.

Jews and Christians believe that all human beings — no exceptions! — are created in the image of God.  It is because we have a likeness to the Creator, that we are capable of both Science (understanding God’s creation) and Art (making our own creations).  So scientists who don’t believe in God aren’t just blind to what’s in front of them, they are also blind to their own true self, to the spiritual power that enables them to work on a calculation or a measurement.  But, their work still reflects God’s glory, even though they don’t recognize it.

Now God is invisible.  As the Creator, God precedes Nature and transcends it.  Divinity has no physical form, and the human mind cannot comprehend it.  To make a graven image of any animal or person, and worship that as if it were divine, is regarded in the Bible as idolatry, a serious sin.  Yet this same book insists from its very first chapter that God created men and women in his own image!

The human animal may be a rather Picasso-esque, surreal representation of the uncreated, bodiless, singular Power that set the stars in the sky and binds quarks into nuclei; yet it is the representation that is given to us, as a handle to reach out and touch the divine.  We are not God, but we are like God; and by serving our neighbor we also serve the one who made him.

And although none of us yet fully live up to our potential as icons or paintings of God, we have the promise that the Master Artist is working on us, striving forcefully to mold us into that perfect image (if only we allow ourselves to be worked on).  We are all broken in many ways, and that definitely includes me!  But the same God who patiently waited billions of years to make our world — who brought forth the evolution of single cells, sponges, fish, dinosaurs, and (in these last days) birds — is also working to redeem each of us, and the human family as a whole.  That is why Christ came to earth, on a daring rescue mission: to put us back in touch with the source of the whole universe.

This is far more exciting and interesting than the shallow sentiments that most moderns try to console themselves with.  As St. Dorothy Sayers observed, “There was never anything so perilous or so exciting as orthodoxy, nothing so sane and so thrilling.”  In that respect it is, again, like the best moments of scientific discovery.